Factors Influencing COVID-19 Risk: Insights From Molnupiravir Exposure-Response Modeling of Clinical Outcomes.

Molnupiravir (MOV) is an oral antiviral for the treatment of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in outpatient settings. This analysis investigated the relationship between ß-D-N4-hydroxycytidine (NHC) pharmacokinetics and clinical outcomes in patients with mild to moderate COVID-19 in the phase III part of the randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled MOVe-OUT trial. Logistic regression models of the dependency of outcomes on exposures and covariates were constructed using a multistep process. Influential covariates were identified first using placebo arm data, followed by assessment of exposure-dependency in drug effect using data from both the placebo and MOV arms. The exposure-response (E-R) analysis included 1,313 participants; 630 received MOV and 683 received placebo. Baseline viral load, baseline disease severity, age, weight, viral clade, active cancer, and diabetes were identified as significant determinants of response using placebo data. Absolute measures of viral load on days 5 and 10 were strong on-treatment predictors of hospitalization. An additive area under the curve (AUC)-based maximum effect (Emax ) model with a fixed Hill coefficient of 1 best represented the exposure-dependency in drug effect and the AUC50 was estimated to be 19,900 nM hour. Patients at 800 mg achieved near maximal response, which was larger than for 200 or 400 mg. The final E-R model was externally validated and predicted that the relative reduction in hospitalization with MOV treatment would vary with patient characteristics and factors in the population. In conclusion, the E-R results support the MOV dose of 800 mg twice daily to treat COVID-19. Many patient characteristics and factors impacted outcomes beyond drug exposures.

Molnupiravir for the treatment of COVID-19 in immunocompromised participants: efficacy, safety, and virology results from the phase 3 randomized, placebo-controlled MOVe-OUT trial.

PURPOSE: Immunocompromised patients have a potentially increased risk for progression to severe COVID-19 and prolonged replication of SARS-CoV-2. This post hoc analysis examined outcomes among immunocompromised participants in the MOVe-OUT trial. METHODS: In phase 3 of MOVe-OUT, non-hospitalized at-risk adults with mild-to-moderate COVID-19 were randomized to receive molnupiravir 800 mg or placebo twice daily for 5 days. Immunocompromised participants were identified based on prior/concomitant medications and/or medical history. All-cause hospitalization/death, adverse events, SARS-CoV-2 titers, infectivity, and RNA sequences were compared between immunocompromised participants who received molnupiravir or placebo and with non-immunocompromised participants. RESULTS: Fifty-five of 1408 participants were considered immunocompromised. Compared to placebo, fewer molnupiravir-treated immunocompromised participants were hospitalized/died through Day 29 (22.6% [7/31] vs. 8.3% [2/24]), with fewer adverse events (45.2% [14/31] vs. 25.0% [6/24]). A larger mean change from baseline in SARS-CoV-2 RNA was observed with molnupiravir compared to placebo in non-immunocompromised participants (least squares mean [LSM] difference Day 5: - 0.31, 95% confidence interval [CI] - 0.47 to - 0.15), while the mean change was comparable between treatment groups in immunocompromised participants (LSM difference Day 5: 0.23, 95% CI - 0.71 to 1.17). Molnupiravir treatment was associated with increased clearance of infectious virus. Increased errors in viral nucleotide sequences in post-baseline samples compared to placebo support molnupiravir's mechanism of action and were not associated with observation of novel treatment-emergent amino acid substitutions in immunocompromised participants. CONCLUSION: Although the study population was small, these data suggest that molnupiravir treatment for mild-to-moderate COVID-19 in non-hospitalized immunocompromised adults is efficacious and safe and quickly reduces infectious SARS-CoV-2. GOV REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT04575597.

Effect of Molnupiravir on Biomarkers, Respiratory Interventions, and Medical Services in COVID-19 : A Randomized, Placebo-Controlled Trial.

BACKGROUND: In the MOVe-OUT trial, molnupiravir showed a clinically meaningful reduction in the risk for hospitalization or death in adults with mild to moderate COVID-19 and risk factors for progression to severe disease. OBJECTIVE: To identify other potential clinical benefits of molnupiravir versus placebo. DESIGN: Secondary analysis of the randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled phase 3 component of MOVe-OUT. (ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT04575597). SETTING: 107 sites globally. PARTICIPANTS: 1433 nonhospitalized adults aged 18 years or older with mild to moderate COVID-19. INTERVENTION: Molnupiravir, 800 mg, or placebo every 12 hours for 5 days. MEASUREMENTS: Changes from baseline in C-reactive protein (CRP) concentration and oxygen saturation (Spo 2), need for respiratory interventions (including invasive mechanical ventilation), and need for medical services in all randomly assigned participants through day 29, and need for respiratory interventions and time to discharge in the subgroup of participants who were hospitalized after randomization. RESULTS: Participants receiving molnupiravir showed faster normalization of CRP and Spo 2, with improvements observed on day 3 of therapy, compared with placebo. Molnupiravir-treated participants had a decreased need for respiratory interventions versus placebo-treated participants (relative risk reduction [RRR], 34.3% [95% CI, 4.3% to 54.9%]), with similar findings in participants who were hospitalized after randomization (RRR, 21.3% [CI, 0.2% to 38.0%]). Hospitalized participants who received molnupiravir were discharged a median of 3 days before those who received placebo. Acute care visits (7.2% vs. 10.6%; RRR, 32.1% [CI, 4.4% to 51.7%]) and COVID-19-related acute care visits (6.6% vs. 10.0%; RRR, 33.8% [CI, 5.6% to 53.6%]) were less frequent in molnupiravir- versus placebo-treated participants. LIMITATIONS: Some analyses were performed post hoc. Longer-term benefits of molnupiravir therapy were not evaluated. Participants were not immunized against SARS-CoV-2. CONCLUSION: The findings suggest there are additional important clinical benefits of molnupiravir beyond reduction in hospitalization or death. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: Merck Sharp & Dohme LLC, a subsidiary of Merck & Co., Inc.

Molnupiravir for Oral Treatment of Covid-19 in Nonhospitalized Patients.

BACKGROUND: New treatments are needed to reduce the risk of progression of coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19). Molnupiravir is an oral, small-molecule antiviral prodrug that is active against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). METHODS: We conducted a phase 3, double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled trial to evaluate the efficacy and safety of treatment with molnupiravir started within 5 days after the onset of signs or symptoms in nonhospitalized, unvaccinated adults with mild-to-moderate, laboratory-confirmed Covid-19 and at least one risk factor for severe Covid-19 illness. Participants in the trial were randomly assigned to receive 800 mg of molnupiravir or placebo twice daily for 5 days. The primary efficacy end point was the incidence hospitalization or death at day 29; the incidence of adverse events was the primary safety end point. A planned interim analysis was performed when 50% of 1550 participants (target enrollment) had been followed through day 29. RESULTS: A total of 1433 participants underwent randomization; 716 were assigned to receive molnupiravir and 717 to receive placebo. With the exception of an imbalance in sex, baseline characteristics were similar in the two groups. The superiority of molnupiravir was demonstrated at the interim analysis; the risk of hospitalization for any cause or death through day 29 was lower with molnupiravir (28 of 385 participants [7.3%]) than with placebo (53 of 377 [14.1%]) (difference, -6.8 percentage points; 95% confidence interval [CI], -11.3 to -2.4; P = 0.001). In the analysis of all participants who had undergone randomization, the percentage of participants who were hospitalized or died through day 29 was lower in the molnupiravir group than in the placebo group (6.8% [48 of 709] vs. 9.7% [68 of 699]; difference, -3.0 percentage points; 95% CI, -5.9 to -0.1). Results of subgroup analyses were largely consistent with these overall results; in some subgroups, such as patients with evidence of previous SARS-CoV-2 infection, those with low baseline viral load, and those with diabetes, the point estimate for the difference favored placebo. One death was reported in the molnupiravir group and 9 were reported in the placebo group through day 29. Adverse events were reported in 216 of 710 participants (30.4%) in the molnupiravir group and 231 of 701 (33.0%) in the placebo group. CONCLUSIONS: Early treatment with molnupiravir reduced the risk of hospitalization or death in at-risk, unvaccinated adults with Covid-19. (Funded by Merck Sharp and Dohme; MOVe-OUT ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT04575597.).

Effect of Inadequate Empiric Antibacterial Therapy on Hospital Outcomes in SARS-CoV-2-Positive and -Negative US Patients With a Positive Bacterial Culture: A Multicenter Evaluation From March to November 2020.

BACKGROUND: Increased utilization of antimicrobial therapy has been observed during the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic. We evaluated hospital outcomes based on the adequacy of antibacterial therapy for bacterial pathogens in US patients. METHODS: This multicenter retrospective study included patients with ≥24 hours of inpatient admission, ≥24 hours of antibiotic therapy, and discharge/death from March to November 2020 at 201 US hospitals in the BD Insights Research Database. Included patients had a test for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and a positive bacterial culture (gram-positive or gram-negative). We used generalized linear mixed models to evaluate the impact of inadequate empiric therapy (IET), defined as therapy not active against the identified bacteria or no antimicrobial therapy in the 48 hours following culture, on in-hospital mortality and hospital and intensive care unit length of stay (LOS). RESULTS: Of 438 888 SARS-CoV-2-tested patients, 39 203 (8.9%) had positive bacterial cultures. Among patients with positive cultures, 9.4% were SARS-CoV-2 positive, 74.4% had a gram-negative pathogen, 25.6% had a gram-positive pathogen, and 44.1% received IET for the bacterial infection. The odds of mortality were 21% higher for IET (odds ratio [OR], 1.21; 95% CI, 1.10-1.33; P < .001) compared with adequate empiric therapy. IET was also associated with increased hospital LOS (LOS, 16.1 days; 95% CI, 15.5-16.7 days; vs LOS, 14.5 days; 95% CI, 13.9-15.1 days; P < .001). Both mortality and hospital LOS findings remained consistent for SARS-CoV-2-positive and -negative patients. CONCLUSIONS: Bacterial pathogens continue to play an important role in hospital outcomes during the pandemic. Adequate and timely therapeutic management may help ensure better outcomes.

A multicenter analysis of the clinical microbiology and antimicrobial usage in hospitalized patients in the US with or without COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: Past respiratory viral epidemics suggest that bacterial infections impact clinical outcomes. There is minimal information on potential co-pathogens in patients with coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) in the US. We analyzed pathogens, antimicrobial use, and healthcare utilization in hospitalized US patients with and without severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2). METHODS: This multicenter retrospective study included patients with > 1 day of inpatient admission and discharge/death between March 1 and May 31, 2020 at 241 US acute care hospitals in the BD Insights Research Database. We assessed microbiological testing data, antimicrobial utilization in admitted patients with ≥24 h of antimicrobial therapy, and length of stay (LOS). RESULTS: A total of 141,621 patients were tested for SARS-CoV-2 (17,003 [12.0%] positive) and 449,339 patients were not tested. Most (> 90%) patients tested for SARS-CoV-2 had additional microbiologic testing performed compared with 41.9% of SARS-CoV-2-untested patients. Non-SARS-CoV-2 pathogen rates were 20.9% for SARS-CoV-2-positive patients compared with 21.3 and 27.9% for SARS-CoV-2-negative and -untested patients, respectively. Gram-negative bacteria were the most common pathogens (45.5, 44.1, and 43.5% for SARS-CoV-2-positive, -negative, and -untested patients). SARS-CoV-2-positive patients had higher rates of hospital-onset (versus admission-onset) non-SARS-CoV-2 pathogens compared with SARS-CoV-2-negative or -untested patients (42.4, 22.2, and 19.5%, respectively), more antimicrobial usage (68.0, 45.2, and 25.1% of patients), and longer hospital LOS (mean [standard deviation (SD)] of 8.6 [11.4], 5.1 [8.9], and 4.2 [8.0] days) and intensive care unit (ICU) LOS (mean [SD] of 7.8 [8.5], 3.6 [6.2], and 3.6 [5.9] days). For all groups, the presence of a non-SARS-CoV-2 pathogen was associated with increased hospital LOS (mean [SD] days for patients with versus without a non-SARS-CoV-2 pathogen: 13.7 [15.7] vs 7.3 [9.6] days for SARS-CoV-2-positive patients, 8.2 [11.5] vs 4.3 [7.9] days for SARS-CoV-2-negative patients, and 7.1 [11.0] vs 3.9 [7.4] days for SARS-CoV-2-untested patients). CONCLUSIONS: Despite similar rates of non-SARS-CoV-2 pathogens in SARS-CoV-2-positive, -negative, and -untested patients, SARS-CoV-2 was associated with higher rates of hospital-onset infections, greater antimicrobial usage, and extended hospital and ICU LOS. This finding highlights the heavy burden of the COVID-19 pandemic on healthcare systems and suggests possible opportunities for diagnostic and antimicrobial stewardship.